Economics for One

Here’s a scary chart.

This is the growth of the Monetary Base, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. As you can see, the money supply has grown steadily over the years. But in the past 18 months it has more than doubled.

What are the implications of this?

G. Edward Griffin’s The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look At The Federal Reserve will profoundly change the way you view the entire banking and monetary system in the US and abroad. It is a fascinating read.

The title refers to the creation of the US Federal Reserve Bank, which took place at a then-secret meeting in 1910 (later confirmed by the participants), at a resort on Jekyll Island, just off the coast of Georgia.

Most of us grew up thinking of the Federal Reserve as a quasi-government organization that helps stabilize our money supply. How it does that is often a bit of a mystery, although it involves interest rates, and possibly reserve requirements. And it isn’t always clear what the relationship is between the Federal Reserve and the US government.

Read more…

This month the US Federal deficit passed $1.09 Trillion. That’s the amount of money the US has borrowed so far this year. It does not include debt from past years. The previous record was about $500 Billion.

It’s a pretty ignominious accomplishment. And since the year is not yet over, and the US continues to spend, the debt is continuing to pile up. Based on current spending projections, this year’s debt is expected to hit nearly $2 Trillion by October.

How much is $2 Trillion? It’s about $6,500 per person in the US. For a family of four, that’s about $26,000 in debt accumulated this year.  That’s on top of all previous debt, as well as any consumer or household debts.

But does it really matter? It isn’t like the taxpayers will ever have to pay this debt, right?

Wrong.

The US government’s credit rating is so good it is considered “risk free” by most of the world. The people who loaned the US this money absolutely expect to be paid back. If they are not, it will rock the worldwide financial markets so strongly it will make the recent financial crisis look tame by comparison.

The only ways the US government can pay back that debt are 1) by raising taxes and / or lowering spending, or 2) by devaluing the US dollar through inflation. Higher taxes means less money to hire employees, and less money for those employees to take home and spend.  Inflation makes the dollar worth less relative to other commodities, goods, or services. But while it makes the US debt effectively smaller, it also lowers the value of everyone’s existing savings, investments, and retirement funds.

Given the politics of Washington, DC, which do you think is the more likely scenario?

Most people don’t really understand inflation.  They know it has to do with prices rising – prices for food, housing, utilities, clothes, entertainment, and everything else, really.  But beyond that, they’re often at a loss for how to define inflation.

Inflation is one of the least-understood concepts in economics.  And with good reason: in the US, we haven’t seen terrible inflation for the last couple of decades, so it hasn’t been all that important.

But we’re starting to see it now. Read more…